Paul Merson has made his latest Premier League top four prediction, tipping Chelsea to miss out for a third straight season.
With a 13 point lead at the top, many have declared Liverpool the champions-elect of the Premier League, with Arsenal likely to finish runners-up for a third year in a row.
However, the battle to finish in the two remaining Champions League qualification spots is wide open with just six points separating third to tenth in the table.
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City currently occupy those places, closely followed by Chelsea, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Brighton, Fulham and Aston Villa.
It should be noted that thanks to English clubs’ performance in Europe this season, the Premier League is very likely to receive an extra UCL spot, meaning fifth may be enough to qualify for the competition.
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Forest are the surprise package of the season having been widely predicted to be in a relegation fight last summer, but Nuno Espirito Santo has worked wonders at the City Ground.
Nevertheless, Merson doesn’t believe they can keep the momentum up for the run-in, with the Arsenal legend telling Sky Sports: ‘There’s a lot of teams in there. I still think Fulham are in there and Aston Villa, they’ve just got to get a run together.
‘Chelsea were seventh in midweek. They beat Southampton and Forest failed to beat Arsenal.
‘Forest have got Man City next week and Chelsea have got Leicester at home. If Chelsea beat them and Forest fail to win, then Chelsea are above them with 10 games to go. But then Chelsea’s games get difficult.
‘I think there will be a shock. I don’t think it will be plain sailing.’
Chelsea’s run-in includes tricky fixtures like Arsenal (A), Tottenham (H), Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A) and crucially Forest (A) on the lastday of the season.
Asked which team would provide the shock and join Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City in the top four, Merson replied: ‘If I’d have sat here last Saturday, I would have said Bournemouth 100 per cent.
‘Wolves at home and Brighton away, I fancied them to get at least four points from those two games. They’ve got some nice fixtures coming up. Then they go and get no points out of those two games.
‘It changes. I would probably say Newcastle would take Forest’s position at the moment.’
In mid-December, Chelsea looked like title contenders having made a flying start under new head coach Enzo Maresca but since then their form has collapsed, winning just three of their last 11 league matches.
Merson had previously suggested that Maresca could be sacked if he failed to beat relegation threatened Leicester next Sunday, though Chelsea first have to navigate a Conference League clash against FC Copenhagen on Thursday.
And while he currently backs Newcastle to finish in the top four, the two-time Arsenal title winner believes it’s anyone’s game, having been left appalled that Opta’s supercomputer was only giving Fulham a 0.99 per cent chance of making it.
‘No! No!’ Merson exclaimed upon seeing Opta’s predictions, which put Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Forest in the top four.
‘We did this midweek before Tuesday’s games and Fulham were one per cent. Now they’ve gone down and they’ve just won at Wolves. How’s that work?!’
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